I first addressed the inadequacy (or perhaps I should say “obsolescence”) of the Saffir-Simpson scale currently used for categorizing hurricanes based on wind speed back in 2017:
https://sky-lights.org/2017/09/11/qa-category-6-hurricanes/
I’ve got some more data now and thought it was time for a reprise. The Saffir-Simpson scale was adopted in the early 1970s. It was developed by civil engineer Herbert Saffir and meteorologist Robert Simpson. It categorizes hurricanes from 1–5 based on their maximum wind speeds, as the graphic shows. Typically, maximum wind speeds are generated in the eyewall of the hurricane, and are measured using a combination of satellites, radar, and dropsondes.
Here’s the problem: We can better inform citizens, first responders, FEMA, infrastructure crews, and insurance companies by doing two things. First, extend the scale beyond category 5. We’ve done this in the graphic by extending the blue line with the same slope as existing data. This extrapolation shows there have been 10 hurricanes with wind speeds above what should be called a category 6 hurricane. Nine of them were after 1980, six of them after 2000. Clearly things are getting worse. We need to acknowledge that fact.
Second, we should start using decimal categories, e.g., category 5.5. Meteorological data can support that level of precision. We already do that with earthquakes on the Richter scale, e.g., magnitude 4.5. This would fill in the gaps and allow for more precise preparedness. Not saying we should define category 5.437 hurricanes, but it seems a shame to throw away data we already have.
I doubt anyone at the current NOAA is following Sky Lights or are interested in extending the Saffir-Simpson scale. I wrote this post from my usual scientific point of view. Just sayin’, more data is better data.
Next Week in Sky Lights ⇒ How Flight Data Recorders Work